Playoff odds
2,000 simulated seasons after week 8. Updated 8:15 PM.
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The rest of the season is played out again and again from the results so far, using the same simulated player weeks as the win odds, and every finish is seeded with the league's own tiebreakers. The bars under each team show how often it finished in each seed, seed 1 on the left; the coloured ones are playoff seeds, the grey ones the Bitch Bowl.
- Peazy 7-1 98% 75% <1%
- Mittens 7-1 97% 62% <1%
- Benihana Bob 5-3 76% 21% 2%
- Burning Man 5-3 63% 15% 3%
- Nepal Flood Monkeys 4-4 60% 9% 2%
- Commodore Puddles 5-3 60% 8% 5%
- The Evil 6-2 57% 5% 9%
- The Quick Trippers 3-5 32% 2% 5%
- Risotto Buzzkill 4-4 31% 1% 5%
- Monkey's Bitch 3-5 13% <1% 18%
- Bucket of Dicks 3-5 10% <1% 12%
- Shaved Cats 2-6 2% <1% 5%
- Sweet Little Nephew 1-7 2% <1% 4%
- Smurphs 1-7 <1% <1% 30%
Bye: seeds 1 and 2 are the division winners and sit out week 15. Bitch: the chance of losing all three Bitch Bowl games, where seeds 7 to 14 play and the loser advances.
How the odds are worked out
- Finished weeks count exactly as they stand. A week in progress counts what its players have done so far, like the win odds on the scoreboard.
- Every later game is played from the same simulated player weeks as the win odds, one simulated NFL week for the whole league at a time.
- Each team keeps its current lineup, or its last one if this week's is not in, for the rest of the season. A starter on a bye or ruled out is swapped for the best man on the bench. Injuries are carried forward as they are this week, and nobody trades or adds a player.
- Week 14 is paired 1 v 14, 2 v 13 and so on from each simulated week 13 table. A tied game there, or in the Bitch Bowl, goes to the better seed.
- Seeds use the league's tiebreakers: record, head-to-head, point differential, then a coin flip. The division winners take seeds 1 and 2.
- "<1%" and ">99%" mean it happened in almost no simulated season, or almost every one, but is not settled yet. 0% and 100% are settled.